Figures prepared by the National Housing Federation and green consultancy Camco reveal that social housing could be worth 11 per cent of the overall green deal retrofit market.

However the report, which is due to be published in the next two weeks, also casts doubt on the scheme’s ability to meet the government target of cutting carbon emissions from social housing by 80 per cent by 2050. It suggests the maximum potential cut from social homes that the green deal could achieve in its current form is 21 per cent.

Under the green deal, which kicks off in 2012, private and social landlords will be able to carry out energy efficiency works – the cost of which will be recouped through savings on energy bills.

The NHF report predicts that by 2020, social landlords will have been able to retrofit a quarter of their homes using green deal finance but may only achieve a 4 per cent reduction in carbon emissions – although this could increase if tenants live greener lifestyles.

Olivia Powis, London regional manager at the NHF, said: ‘This study demonstrates the potential of green deal finance alone and proves that, in order to work effectively for social landlords, the green deal must be topped up with the new energy supplier obligation [a levy on everyone’s fuel bills collected by energy suppliers] and other policy drivers such as feed-in tariffs and the renewable heat incentive. It will then be a very useful programme for social landlords to deliver retrofit on a large scale. It is also worth considering that many social homes are already more energy efficient than most as a result of decent homes work.’

Duncan Price, director at Camco, said: ‘The analysis shows that green deal finance could deliver £12 billion of investment to the sector and reduce emissions by 21 per cent across a typical portfolio of projects. Leading housing associations will therefore be able capture significant value and out-perform the [housing] sector average.’

The report also highlighted the need for the administration process of the supplier obligation to be transparent and all green deal providers to have equal access to the suppliers’ obligation money.

The Climate Change Act 2008, states that “It is the duty of the Secretary of State to ensure that the net UK carbon account for the year 2050 is at least 80% lower than the 1990 baseline , and that he/she may amend the baseline or the CO2 reduction target , upon due consultation as defined in the Act”. see Part 1, Section 1(2)

This may include a combination of:

¦ Altering the make-up of the power generation within the national grid, by transferring to non-fossil based fuels.
¦ Reductions in consumptions by energy efficiency measures, better controls and re-education of users.
¦ Offset of CO2 emissions with other nations
¦ Setting departmental targets for achieving the overall national reduction

Consequently, housing providers, being a sub-set of the Department for Local Communities, will likely be set a target which will be a fraction similar to the existing proportion of CO2 emissions for their sector.

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